Inflation Forecast Calculator

Empirical forecast based on official consumer price indices data (Euro Area – Eurostat HICP, USA – CPI-U, Italy – NIC with tobacco ISTAT)

A project by Rivaluta.it

Latest Monthly Change
0,1%
Euro Area Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) reading
Latest Annual Change
2,2%
Euro Area Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) reading
Latest Index
129,43
September 2025
Euro Area Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)
Index One Year Ago
126,6
Annual reference
Euro Area Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)
Euro Area (HICP)

Index: 129,43 (Settembre 2025)
Annual change: 2,2%
Monthly change: 0,1%

United States (CPI-U)

Index: 324,8 (Settembre 2025)
Annual change: 3%
Monthly change: 0,3%

Italy (NIC with tobacco)

Index: 123,1 (Settembre 2025)
Annual change: 1,6%
Monthly change: -0,2%

🇺🇸 USA
🇪🇺 Euro Area
🇮🇹 Italy (NIC_T)

What will be the next inflation index for October 2025?

👉 Selected dataset: Euro Area – HICP
The index for the previous year stood at 127,030

Baseline scenario (0,1 percentage point, same variation as previous month): 129,56 2,0% y/y

Optimistic scenario (+0,2 percentage point): 129,69 2,1% y/y

Pessimistic scenario (+0,0 percentage point): 129,43 1,9% y/y

Stable scenario (no change) (0,0 percentage point): 129,43 1,9% y/y

How it works

Select your preferred dataset than set the start month and year, provide the initial index and your expected monthly change to compute the next month's index. Click "Add Month" to extend the forecast.

Formatting
Reference Period
Inflation Forecast
Month Index Expected monthly change (%) Actions
Forecast Summary
Month Index, same month last year Projected index Expected monthly change (%) Projected annual inflation Average annual inflation (ytd)
Projected Annual Inflation Chart
Current Euro Area Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) Data
Latest Values
Monthly change: 0,1%
Annual change: 2,2%
Latest month available: September 2025
Previous month available: August 2025
Index Levels
Latest Euro Area Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) index: 129,43
Euro Area Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) index one year ago: 126,6
Reference: NIC
The data shown refer to the latest available period for Euro Area Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP).
About this calculator
What it does

This tool provides an interactive way to forecast consumer price indices (Euro Area HICP, USA CPI-U, Italy NIC with tobacco) using baseline, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios derived from user-defined monthly variations.

  • Select data source – choose the dataset to use: Euro Area (HICP, Eurostat), USA (CPI-U, BLS) or Italy (NIC with tobacco, ISTAT).
  • Set reference period – choose the last available month and index value (default: latest data).
  • Apply monthly variation – enter the expected monthly change in %.
  • Add months – extend the projection one month at a time.
  • Compare scenarios – baseline (same as last month), optimistic (–0.1%), pessimistic (+0.1%).
  • Check results – see projected indices, monthly changes, and annual inflation in the summary table and chart.

The calculator applies a simple compounding formula:

Next index = Current index × (1 + Expected change / 100)

Annual inflation is measured against the same month of the previous year.

Note: This is an educational tool. Results are illustrative only and should not be used for financial decisions.
Data sources and methodology
Area Source dataset Notes / Release schedule Methods and definitions Geographical information
Euro Area

prc_hicp_manr
prc_hicp_mmor
Estimate (e)


Rivaluta.it – Average EURO AREA Inflation

 Flash estimate issued at the end of each reference month.
Full HICP data released mid-month.
 Annual inflation = price change vs. same month prev. year.
Monthly inflation = price change vs. previous month. 		Belgium, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Croatia, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, Slovenia, Slovakia, Finland.
Data adjusted with chain index formula when composition changes.
United States

CPI-U (Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers)
BLS – Bureau of Labor Statistics


Rivaluta.it – Average US inflation from 1934

 Monthly CPI released usually within two weeks after reference month.
Includes seasonally adjusted and unadjusted data. 		Annual inflation = % change CPI vs. same month prev. year.
Monthly inflation = % change vs. previous month. 		Covers all urban consumers (approx. 93% of U.S. population).
Data collected across U.S. metropolitan areas.
Italy (NIC_T)

Indice NIC con tabacchi
Source: ISTAT

Rivaluta.it – Average Italy inflation from 1955

 Provisional estimates end of month.
Final NIC data released around middle of following month. 		Annual inflation = % change vs. same month prev. year.
Monthly inflation = % change vs. previous month.
NIC includes all consumption, tobacco included. 		National coverage – Italy.
Harmonised with Eurostat rules for comparability.